Pumpkin Hollow Copper Mine Production Resumption Receives Support, LME Copper Fluctuated and Closed Higher Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Thursday, November 6, 2025

Futures: LME copper opened overnight at $10,652.5/mt, initially fluctuated downward to touch a low of $10,615/mt, then the center of copper prices gradually moved upward, approaching the tail of the session to touch a high of $10,738.5/mt, and finally closed at $10,733/mt, a gain of 0.79%, with trading volume reaching 21,000 lots and open interest reaching 326,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2512 opened overnight at 85,550 yuan/mt, initially dipped to 85,400 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward to touch a high of 85,970 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 85,900 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.55%, with trading volume reaching 44,000 lots and open interest reaching 214,000 lots.

[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:

(1) On November 4, Kinterra Capital and its operating subsidiary Southwest Critical Materials LLC announced that they had received a "non-binding letter of interest" from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) to provide up to $220 million in support for the production resumption project of their Pumpkin Hollow Mine copper mine. Among this, approximately $180 million will be used to restart the underground mine, and about $20 million will be used to advance technical work for the adjacent southern open-pit mining project. The mine was acquired by Kinterra for $128 million in an auction last October; the previous owner, Nevada Copper Corp., had once produced but went bankrupt due to operational issues.

Spot:

(1) Shanghai: On November 5, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2511 contract were at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 90 yuan/mt, with the average price reported at a premium of 25 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices were 85,190-85,480 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper opened low and moved higher, rising from 85,220 yuan/mt to 85,620 yuan/mt; the inter-month price spread fluctuated between a contango of 30 yuan/mt and a backwardation of 10 yuan/mt; the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract narrowed to around 600 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to tomorrow, downstream demand recovered briefly after the sharp decline in copper prices, but most participants still exhibited wait-and-see sentiment; after short-term restocking, transactions are expected to see no significant growth, and spot premiums are expected to stabilize tomorrow.

(2) Guangdong: On November 5, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, with the average price at a discount of 15 yuan/mt, up 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to a discount of 70 yuan/mt, with the average price at a discount of 90 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 85,265 yuan/mt, down 1,470 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 85,190 yuan/mt, down 1,465 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, the sharp drop in copper prices increased downstream purchasing enthusiasm, and spot premiums rose.

(3) Imported copper: On November 5, warrant prices were $30-40/mt, QP November, the average price was flat compared to the previous trading day; B/L prices were $38-50/mt, QP November, the average price fell by $7/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$16/mt to $4/mt, QP November, the average price rose by $7/mt from the previous trading day; quotations refer to cargoes arriving in the first half of November.

(4) Secondary Copper: At 11:30 on November 5, the futures closing price was 85,630 yuan/mt, down 770 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium/discount was 25 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials fell 800 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 77,200-77,400 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,421 yuan/mt, up 106 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,270 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, after copper prices fell consecutively, secondary copper rod enterprises reported good new orders during the day, and purchase willingness among end-users recovered somewhat. If copper prices do not fall below 85,000 yuan/mt, end-user purchasing sentiment will be difficult to improve further.

(5) Inventories: On November 4, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 75 mt to 133,975 mt; on November 5, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 1,414 mt to 42,561 mt.

Prices: On the macro front, the US Supreme Court raised questions about the previous administration's tariff policies, coupled with strong US economic data. October ADP employment added 42,000 people, the largest increase since July 2025, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reached 52.4, a new high since February 2025. Market concerns about a US government shutdown eased, pushing copper prices to fluctuate upward. On the fundamentals side, supply side, high-quality copper resources remained tight, while standard-quality copper and non-registered sources were relatively ample. Demand side, purchasing sentiment recovered after copper prices pulled back and stabilized. Overall, copper prices were expected to encounter resistance today.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]